# Table 18: Rolling 10-Year Window Z_1 on Real 10-Year Bond Yield (OECD)

| Window | Z_1 coef | Z_1 SE | p-value | R2 | N | Method |
|--------|--------:|-------:|--------:|---:|--:|--------|
| 2005-2014 | 12.392 | 23.130 | 0.5927 | 0.379 | 230 | PanelGLS |
| 2006-2015 | -2.405 | 26.299 | 0.9272 | 0.338 | 230 | PanelGLS |
| 2007-2016 | -11.188 | 29.752 | 0.7072 | 0.247 | 230 | PanelGLS |
| 2008-2017 | -15.795 | 28.582 | 0.5811 | 0.338 | 230 | PanelGLS |
| 2009-2018 | -2.489 | 29.338 | 0.9325 | 0.375 | 230 | PanelGLS |
| 2010-2019 | -8.884 | 30.964 | 0.7745 | 0.342 | 230 | PanelGLS |
| 2011-2020 | 18.288 | 29.576 | 0.5370 | 0.281 | 230 | PanelGLS |
| 2012-2021 | 33.781 | 24.772 | 0.1741 | 0.411 | 230 | PanelGLS |
| 2013-2022 | -8.000 | 19.421 | 0.6808 | 0.723 | 230 | PanelGLS |
| 2014-2023 | -45.093* | 23.751 | 0.0589 | 0.656 | 230 | PanelGLS |
| 2015-2024 | -18.360 | 25.132 | 0.4659 | 0.715 | 207 | PanelGLS |

*Windows are 10-year rolling, OECD only. PanelGLS where feasible, OLS fallback.*